Jimmy Kimmel Show is back!

[Shaquille Oatmeal]

You seem determined to discuss future economic growth. You will argue the second half of 2025 and part of 2026 are going to be bad. Essentially, that is changing the subject of what happened in the first half of 2025.

I have ridden more economic cycles than I care to admit. I've been through all the doom and gloom in each cycle. I am more interested in where the U.S. economy is in 2027/2028.

I am talking about the present numbers in Q2.
I am saying they are not presenting an accurate picture.

 

[squeezer]

How bout one of those big German pretzels with spicy brown mustard?

No, don't get carried away, plus in your case, this would be a little cannibalistic!!!

@Butler1000 is allowed to enjoy the pretzel because he's been issued a white hat and a seat on the bus.

 

[squeezer]

I wish Musk would go away from this planet.

Why do you not like MusK? He's a big conspiracy theorist, just a very rich one. LOL

 

[WyattEarp]

I am talking about the present numbers in Q2.
I am saying they are not presenting an accurate picture.

Well sorry, you can predict bad numbers but the economy was not in recession in the first half of the year. Maybe you were trying to confuse me or maybe you didn't know that nonfarm payrolls did not decline through August.

I am assuming we will be in recession in Q4 but again that is a different discussion.

 

[Butler1000]

Well sorry, you can predict bad numbers but the economy was not in recession in the first half of the year. Maybe you were trying to confuse me or maybe you didn't know that nonfarm payrolls did not decline through August.

I am assuming we will be in recession in Q4 but again that is a different discussion.

I think there are two economies. And the one that affects the majority of people is not doing well.

 

[WyattEarp]

I think there are two economies. And the one that affects the majority of people is not doing well.

You certainly would agree U.S. income inequality didn't start January 20. Shaq is making another point.

 

[Shaquille Oatmeal]

Well sorry, you can predict bad numbers but the economy was not in recession in the first half of the year. Maybe you were trying to confuse me or maybe you didn't know that nonfarm payrolls did not decline through August.

I am assuming we will be in recession in Q4 but again that is a different discussion.

I wasn't predicting anything.
All I said was that the Q2 real GDP numbers are misleading and don't paint a realistic picture of the economy.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

I said inflation numbers cannot be trusted when it comes from the Trump administration for the reasons I already highlighted.
Which would make real GDP calculations inaccurate as well.

So no these numbers are likely fudged, or at the very least paint a false picture of good economic health

You have no idea what you're talking about.
The Director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis who calculates quarterly GDP and inflation numbers is Vipin Arora, who was a Biden administration hire in 2022.
He's probably a Democrat and not loyal to Trump in any way. So why would he fudge the numbers for Trump??

Read and learn: https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2022-12-05/vipin-arora-named-new-bea-director

All I said was that the Q2 real GDP numbers are misleading and don't paint a realistic picture of the economy

Do you have any evidence of this, or is it just another one of your half baked conspiracy theories??

 

[WyattEarp]

Show me where any of this led to any mergers or acquisitions or caused people to lose their jobs? And, you might not be up on this, but one of the big proponents of DEI/ESG was the head of a little investment company called....BlackRock.

Individual companies are free to do whatever they want. I'm not sure your point here.

And that started long before Gensler was appointed head of the SEC. And, I also hate to point this out, since capital markets do not exist in a vacuum. A little group called the European Union (along with a number of Asian organizations) have embraced ESG, which does include strong support for DEI. So, the point of all that is that the SEC was at the time making it easier for American organizations to comply with international laws.

As long as I can remember, Europe has had more and different regulations. U.S. based corporations are quite adept at complying with local regulations without mandating compliance across the entire enterprise.

Gensler might have thought this would help standardize practices across North America and Europe, but that is a political judgement. The SEC has no mandate to require or even encourage ESG in the U.S. It is an implied threat that is no different than what some people say Nextstar is responding to with the current Administration.

The problem with your analysis is that you want to ignore the deemphasis in ESG since Gensler's departure. Now I would admit Gensler's departure is not the only reason for the change in Corporate mood over ESG. However, if companies went to court to fight the SEC's climate reporting initiative that is the definition of regulatory pressure resolved by the very definition of conflict. Why go to court if it was merely suggestive guidance?

So...show me ANY company that got in regulatory trouble for not following DEI? Or one where the head of the SEC threatened them with something for not doing it.

Who said the Nextstar merger was in regulatory trouble? That's liberal conjecture to fit a narrative around KImmel. I personally doubt that it is or ever was. A pending merger doesn't explain Sinclair's action. Sinclair is just exercising its rights of ownership. Pretty much like your BlackRock example.

In closing, as I said people tend to defend inappropriate government intervention when it suits their politics. It can be rationalized. The SEC example was only just one. Facebook said it was "asked" to suppress the Hunter Biden laptop story. The Obama and Biden Administrations encouraged the debanking of politically unpopular industries.

There is always subtle political pressure applied by many regulatory agencies. The heads of these agencies tend to be very political and that's how they get appointed here in the U.S.

Operation Choke Point - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Shaquille Oatmeal]

You have no idea what you're talking about.
The Director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis who calculates quarterly GDP and inflation numbers is Vipin Arora, who was a Biden administration hire in 2022.
He's probably a Democrat and not loyal to Trump in any way. So why would he fudge the numbers for Trump??

Read and learn: https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2022-12-05/vipin-arora-named-new-bea-director


Do you have any evidence of this, or is it just another one of your half baked conspiracy theories??

I already made the argument in subsequent posts.
By the way the BEA pulls data from multiple sources, such as the BLS.
When those sources are corrupt, your data is corrupt.
Garbage in, garbage out.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

I already made the argument in subsequent posts.
By the way the BEA pulls data from multiple sources, such as the BLS.
When those sources are corrupt, your data is corrupt.
Garbage in, garbage out

But you have no evidence of this and its just your opinion, right??

 

[Shaquille Oatmeal]

But you have no evidence of this and its just your opinion, right??

No evidence? Trump fired the BLS chief a few months ago because the jobs data made him look bad. lol.
Nothing Trump's administrations says can be trusted.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

No evidence? Trump fired the BLS chief a few months ago because the jobs data made him look bad. lol.
Nothing Trump's administrations says can be trusted.

Trump fired him because he though he was doing a shitty job, there's no evidence to suggest Trump fired him so he could fix the statistics with his new hire

 

[Shaquille Oatmeal]

Trump fired him because he though he was doing a shitty job, there's no evidence to suggest Trump fired him so he could fix the statistics with his new hire

*Her.
And he fired her because he didn't like her report.
Aka shoot the messenger.

 

[squeezer]

Trump fired him because he though he was doing a shitty job, there's no evidence to suggest Trump fired him so he could fix the statistics with his new hire

What do you think the next one is going to do: ANNOUNCE bad numbers and also get canned or massage the message to fit Trump's narrative? What would you do if you landed the job? Piss off the boss who hired you?

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

What do you think the next one is going to do: ANNOUNCE bad numbers and also get canned or massage the message to fit Trump's narrative? What would you do if you landed the job? Piss off the boss who hired you?

*Her.
And he fired her because he didn't like her report.
Aka shoot the messenger

How do you know she wasnt fudging the numbers to make Trump look bad??

 

[Frankfooter]

I don't think the progressives will concede anything unless a manifesto turns up. Even then, they would quibble about its meaning.

The fact that Robinson has refused to talk suggests the insanity plea is probably on the table. Don't think declaring political extremism and violent retribution is a good tact at this point in his defense.

I don't think MAGA will concede or accept the findings of investigations.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1971309311298355625

 

[WyattEarp]

What do you think the next one is going to do: ANNOUNCE bad numbers and also get canned or massage the message to fit Trump's narrative? What would you do if you landed the job? Piss off the boss who hired you?

How many large, far back-dated revisions did we have to have before liberals were going to admit something wasn't working?

We live in a politically divisive world where anyone Trump fires is going to be held up as a victim. This even when the reason for dismissal is laid out before your eyes.

 

[Frankfooter]

As I said, if you think there is a conspiracy to fudge the numbers all your other arguments are really moot. Aren't they?
You're throwing spaghetti at us. How bout this reason? And how bout this reason?

You are not just questioning the numbers behind GDP you are inadvertently questioning the equation itself. Imports are subtracted out because they are added into Consumption and Inventories. Of course, foreign goods don't add to Gross Domestic Product. My explanation of imported inventories impact on GDP in Q2 and Q1 is actually universally accepted by economists. It's not disputed because that's how the GDP equation works. It works that way in Canada as well.

Per Google AI:
In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. imports surged by $158.2 billion to $1 trillion, largely due to businesses stocking up on goods to avoid anticipated tariffs, a move that caused the U.S. GDP to shrink for the first time since the pandemic and also led to strong growth in global merchandise trade volumes, particularly in North America.

PS- At the release of Q1 GDP, I avoided posting that the rise in imports to build-up inventories was a timing issue. There's no point in arguing with people who deeply wanted to believe that Q1 GDP was really bad. Strangely, when the Canadian economy just bumps along you have nothing to say. But hey, the Canadian numbers could be wrong. No reason to believe them.

Its reasonable to question the numbers after trump fired the last person who reported bad numbers.
That's now a feature of the trump government.
Untrustworthy reporting and data.

 

[Frankfooter]

I just provided an example of Starbucks closing up shop and laying off people.
And even per NFP it doesn't sound that great either.
Per Google AI based on NFP:

Though Starbucks layoffs have quite a bit to do with BDS.