Wars involving oil producers raise prices and it stands to reason that the end of these wars lower prices. The Ukraine war raised prices for a short time, but the glut of oil tamped prices down. And then, there's the decrease of Russian oil production.
Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries have hurt Russia's production of its key export.
www.newsweek.com
I'm not sure what happens in this analysis. Besides the costly shipping of oil to the East by train, where does it get refined?
You want to deal more with the practical economic realities rather than patriotic projection.